Montezuma County is predicted to have a “warm, dry” winter based on current weather patterns, but experiences no drought “at all right now,” according to James Andrus, the National Weather Service’s weather observer in Cortez.
Andrus told The Journal that as of mid-November, the Dolores Basin has 408% of snow water content, but the percentages aren’t “too significant yet” because of the small amount of snow that has fallen this season.
“Despite a developing cooler La Nina temperature pattern in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which forebodes drier winter weather for the Southwest, October rainfall went gangbusters with 2.53 inches of precipitation – 234% of our normal 1.08 inches – thanks to two major rainstorms in the middle and end of the month,” Andrus said.
Because of this, the year-to-date precipitation rose to 12.25 inches, which is 122% of the county’s 10.05-inch average.
“This is why Montezuma County has no drought at all right now,” Andrus said. “Our first snow of 0.7 inches on Oct. 31 is 116% of our 0.6 inch monthly average.”
According to the seasonal temperature outlook and seasonal precipitation outlook, the probability of above-normal temperatures for November through January will be between 40% and 50% with below-normal chances of precipitation of between 40% and 50%.
October temperatures also saw eight daily high temperature records broken, as well as tying six daily high temperatures.
Andrus said all indicators so far point to a warm and dry winter, but that can always change.
“When you consider the variability of the different episodes of weather, it’s not a guarantee,” Andrus said. “This past fall, we had dry months and wet months; I’m reluctant to forecast what the rest of the winter will look like. So far, November has been awfully dry though, with only .01 inches of rain measured so far in the first half the month.”
Despite the dismal amount of precipitation that has shown its face in the area this month, a storm is predicted to make its way to the county sometime Sunday or early next week.
“We’ve got a good chance of getting some precipitation,” Andrus said. “It may be only snowfall in the mountains, however.”
Andrus also urged residents to not waste their use of water heading into winter.
