In December, Cortez received a mere 0.06 inches of precipitation, a total that local weather expert Jim Andrus called “horrendous.”
That number is just 7% of the 0.89 inches of precipitation December normally gets.
But even with the meager snowfall, 2024’s total precipitation of 12.79 inches is above the usual 11.79 inches the area gets annually.
That’s not to say December’s total wasn’t “horrendous.”
“It’s the driest I’ve recorded in my 27 years of recordkeeping for Cortez,” said Andrus. “It’s a horrendous precipitation situation.”
In his 27 years, Andrus said he’s recorded as much as 74.8 inches and as little as 8 inches during a winter season.
“This dry La Niña winter now threatens to set a new minimum record if we don’t recover from this situation,” he said.
The La Niña pattern, Andrus explained, means a warmer and drier season than usual in the Southwest, and a wetter winter in the Pacific Northwest.
“This is exactly what it’s supposed to look like,” he said. “I sure wish we could’ve had an exception here.”
Those warmer temperatures set two new records in December.
Andrus recorded 58 degrees on Dec. 22, which broke the 1955 record of 54 degrees. On Dec. 30, temperatures reached 61 degrees, which broke the 2017 record of 60 degrees.
No daily lows were set.
The lowest recorded temperature for the month was 12 degrees on Dec. 11, and the coldest daily high was 38 degrees on Dec. 10, 11 and 27.
“At least during this drought, it hasn’t been windy,” Andrus said.
Plus, the vegetation around Cortez isn’t as dense as in some of the California suburbs, so the weather pattern is less of a threat here firewise, he said.
Still, there was a fire on Christmas Eve that burned an estimated quarter of an acre in McElmo Canyon, said Cortez Fire Battalion Chief Rick Spencer.
“It was accidentally caused and was fueled by the very dry conditions. Even though it is ‘winter’ the vegetation is very dry and will burn,” Spencer said in an email.
In light of this weather, Andrus advised folks to “conserve water, don’t waste it. I’m not sure how much runoff we’ll get this spring.”
We’re a bit below normal for snowpack, he said.
A newsletter recently sent out by the San Juan Mountain Association echoed the point, at least for that range.
“The San Juan snowpack is off to a rocky start, but there’s still hope for a snowy comeback. It's currently at 83-84% of median for this time of year, which is well behind our northern neighbors,” it said.
The hope lies in January and February, which “are typically our snowiest months,” according to the newsletter.
So far in January, Andrus said Cortez has received 0.3 inches of snow.
The warmer, drier La Niña pattern is expected to stick around, looking ahead at the 30- and 90-day forecasts.
“The La Niña pattern can be stable and stubborn about moving,” said Andrus. “The only people that seem to be getting enough snow is the ski resorts.”
