TORONTO (AP) — Canada's governing Liberal Party appeared poised for a historic election defeat this year. Then Donald Trump declared economic war and threatened to annex the entire country as a 51st state. Now the Canadian Liberals and their new prime minister could come out on top.
Then there's Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, facing a groundswell of visible support at home for her approach to Trump's tariff threats. There's Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who visited the White House last month and was knocked on his heels, then went back to Europe to receive what many offered as a hero's welcome. Even Emmanuel Macron’s comeback in French polls might be linked, some say, to his taking a more robust approach with the new U.S. president during recent weeks.
Saying the United States will always do what's best for the United States first, Trump has shaken up decades of international order. In weeks, he has sent leaders of other nations scrambling to shore up their own economies, partnerships and defenses against a Russia threat — and solidify their own polls at home, too.
“Trump is like a flaming freight train that is igniting everything in its path,” said Kory Teneycke, a conservative Canadian campaign director. “It’s not just a big thing. It’s almost the only thing that is moving the electorate right now.”
Everyone, it seems, is responding to Trump. But nearly two months after his blizzard of executive orders, threats and trade wars, some leaders are steadying their messages with defiance and plans — not that they will necessarily change the Trump administration's approach to it all.
Scrambling and dread in Europe
For great swaths of the European continent, Trump’s reversal of three years of support for Ukraine after Russia’s invasion was received as an existential matter. Trump’s false claim that Zelenskyy started the war — and the American president’s thrashing of Zelenskyy in the Oval Office Feb. 28 — undermined 80 years of cooperation with Europe on the understanding that the U.S. would help protect those nations from the Russian threat after World War II. Trump also limited Ukraine’s access to intelligence and weaponry.
The confrontation laid bare the limits of a full-court press by America’s allies aimed at reshaping Trump’s determination to end Russia’s invasion even if the terms are not to Ukraine’s liking. And a lot of Europe didn’t like it much.
Leaders immediately backed up the Ukrainian president on social media. Visual confirmation came the next day, when British Prime Minister Keir Starmer enveloped Zelenskyy in a hug in front of 10 Downing Street for all to see. It was a visual hint at what one historian suggests could happen: “Oddly enough, NATO might become kind of a anti-Trump alliance,” said Robert Bothwell, a professor of Canadian history and international relations at the University of Toronto. “He’s doing a good job of creating that.”
That could happen reasonably quickly; some European leaders are already understanding that Trump is setting them adrift to face Russia alone.
For years, Trump had complained that NATO allies weren’t contributing enough to Europe’s defense. Macron, too, had pushed for a stronger, more sovereign Europe since his own election in 2017, and has since insisted that the EU step up and start acting as a strategic world power. And within moments of his Feb. 23 election as Germany’s likely next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, declared that his “absolute priority” will be for Europe to “really achieve independence from the U.S.”
Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, is expected under its likely coalition government to loosen restrictions on borrowing money for defense spending. Meanwhile last week, the EU’s 27 member nations signed off on a plan to loosen budget restrictions so that willing EU countries can increase their military spending. But for all that, Europe’s leaders were sidelined from talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Tuesday to end the war.
Canada’s conservatives struggle
Canada’s federal Conservatives and their leader Pierre Poilievre were heading for a massive victory in Canada’s federal election this year — until, Teneycke says, Trump’s near-daily trade and annexation threats derailed them.
“It’s the kiss of death to have JD Vance say something nice about you or have Elon Musk tweet out support for you. Every time Musk says something nice about Pierre Poilievre he goes down a point or two,” he said. “Stop helping. You are not helping.”
Teneycke was the campaign director for Doug Ford’s recent Progressive Conservative party win in the Canadian province of Ontario. Ford’s government just won big by having Ford stand up strong for Canada against Trump.
Trump’s trade war and his talk of making Canada the 51st U.S. state have infuriated Canadians, who are booing the American anthem at NHL and NBA games. Some are canceling trips south of the border, and many are avoiding buying American goods when they can. The surge in Canadian nationalism has bolstered the Liberal Party’s chances federally in a parliamentary election expected within days or weeks, and Liberal showings have been improving in opinion polls.
The change in the polls is dramatic. In mid-January a poll by Nanos, the Liberals trailed the opposition Conservatives and Poilievre 47% to 20%. This week the latest poll has the Liberals within 2 points. And that was before the party chose former central banker Mark Carney to replace Justin Trudeau.
“They are coming right back from the dead,” Bothwell said. “I am amazed. And it is all Trump.”
Bothwell says Trump’s appeal is merely to American nationalism — what he calls a type of it “that is offensive to all foreigners.” He says Canadians are rallying around the flag as if it’s wartime.
“If somebody comes up and kicks sand in your face and then spits in your eye, you don’t like it,” Bothwell said. “It’s a response to provocation. And a very serious provocation."
Mexico has a less confrontational approach
In Mexico, a jubilant Sheinbaum celebrated with fellow citizens at a huge rally Sunday after many American tariffs were delayed,
Although she appears strong now, it is not clear whether the 62-year-old president's political support would weaken if the Mexican economy deteriorates because of tensions with the United States. “The president will overcome everything,” said Mariana Rivera, a 40-year-old social activist who held up a massive Mexican flag as high as her arms allowed.
While her predecessor and populist ally managed an amicable relationship with Trump in his last term, some questioned if Sheinbaum would be able to strike up the same dynamic. But with approval above 80% and a steady peso, even Sheinbaum’s critics have admitted that the leader has been able to navigate the chaotic waters with expertise.
“She’s a leader that has chosen a very rational, reasonable strategy, a strategy that focuses on cooperation … at the same time that Trudeau has come at with very conflictive language,” said Palmira Tapia, a political analyst in Mexico.
Sheinbaum has repeatedly said she would manage relations with Trump with a “cool head," especially when it comes to Trump’s promise of 25% tariffs, something economic forecasters said would sink Mexico’s economy into a recession.
To appease Trump, Sheinbaum has directed 10,000 troops to the U.S.-Mexico border, stepped up crackdowns on fentanyl and sent 29 cartel bosses to face justice in the U.S. While Canada and China immediately responded to last week’s tariffs by reciprocating, Sheinbaum bided her time. After Trump said he would delay the tariffs, she turned a planned march into a “festival.”
Where will the ripples end? Trump is already so unpopular in Canada that hockey great Wayne Gretzky, a friend of Trump’s who has not spoken up for Canada, has become a pariah in his home country.
“This is Wayne Gretzky — the best-known and best-regarded Canadian in my life time. Since the early 80’s this guy has been Canadian like a beaver and maple syrup,” Teneycke said. “He’s absolutely iconic, and he would be booed if he took center ice at any NHL game in Canada right now over the Trump thing. It’s flabbergasting.”
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Rob Gillies oversees coverage of Canada for The Associated Press. AP journalists Laurie Kellman in London and Megan Janetsky in Mexico City contributed.
