Just as snow has begun to dust the higher peaks in La Plata County, the Colorado Avalanche Information Center will begin its daily forecasting.
Daily forecasts will resume Tuesday, and CAIC’s Director Ethan Greene said the state could be in for another high-risk season for avalanches given the early snowfall.
“The best thing that can happen is it starts snowing and it doesn’t stop,” he said.
Avalanches are often caused by a reactive persistent weak layer of angular snow crystals referred to as faceted snow that lies underneath newer layers of snow. A layer of snow becomes faceted when it has a large temperature gradient, which is the result of erratic snowfall or stints of warm weather. If the layer of snow that fell during last week’s storm remains at the surface, its snow crystals are likely to develop facets and form a weak layer that could torment backcountry recreationalists for the coming months.
“Today’s prize, in the form of precipitation, can very easily become January’s problems,” said Michael Ackerman, director of the Silverton Avalanche School.
“Two scenarios could help,” Greene said. “If it just keeps snowing, there could be no faceting. Or it gets super warm and the snow melts (so) we sort of start over. But neither of those is that likely.”
Ackerman concurred with that assessment.
“If history is any guide and the National Weather Service’s crystal ball comes true, it does look like that spigot is going to shut off and then we’ll start our classic facet farm and we’ll probably have a decomposing basement layer,” he said. “I haven’t given up hope yet.”
The triple dip La Niña winter adds a complicating element to the forecast because so few records exist of such an occurrence. Ackerman remains optimistic that the San Juan Mountains might still see a better-than-average year for avalanche conditions.
Greene said it is not too early for people to approach the backcountry with caution. Anytime there is snow on a steep slope, there is a potential for an avalanche. Monday’s forecast on CAIC’s website warns that “nearly every fall, avalanches catch eager riders and late-season hikers off-guard.”
There were 17 avalanche fatalities nationwide during the 2021-22 season, seven of which occurred in Colorado. There were 12 avalanche fatalities in Colorado alone the season before.
The CAIC hopes to launch a new version of its website this week that will be faster and change the way the state’s forecasting zones are broken down.
Currently, users select one of several geographical regions on the map for which the CAIC issues forecasts. On the new site, a user’s specific location will fall into a zone determined by the forecast avalanche conditions, rather than an arbitrary geographical boundary. The new system should allow users to view information better tailored to their location.
The CAIC will also begin releasing forecasts in the afternoon, rather than the morning. Greene said the hope is that it will allow users more lead time to plan the next day’s activities.
Ackerman said patience will be key in the coming weeks for San Juan backcountry users.
“There’s a lot of FOMO (fear of missing out) going on right now,” he said. “... Really, (it’s important to be) putting that cognitive function in check, pumping the breaks, making sure that my want to wiggle and giggle down a snow-covered hillside is balanced with the fact that it is still pre-Thanksgiving, low-tide conditions, and some dicey autumn weather still to come before winter really settles in and being able to keep the FOMO and my love of the sport in check.”
rschafir@durangoherald.com
