EL SEGUNDO, Calif. (AP) — Playoff-contending teams would like to be rolling into the final three games of the regular season.
Instead, the Los Angeles Chargers are reeling after Sunday's 40-17 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and with a short turnaround before what could be its biggest game of the season.
“You play a game in the National Football League, give up 40 points and 500 yards, there's a high level of concern,” defensive coordinator Jesse Minter said on Monday. “I think you look to your foundation and what you’ve built over time and hope that your foundation allows you to rebound from a game like that. You hope that it’s only a one off.”
The only saving grace for the Chargers going into Thursday night's showdown with AFC West rival Denver is that they have an 83% chance of making the playoffs according to the NFL.
Los Angeles (8-6) — which has dropped three of its past four — holds the last wild-card spot in the AFC and has a two-game lead over Indianapolis, Miami and Cincinnati.
A victory over Denver though would give the Chargers the season sweep and the tiebreaker if both teams have the same record at the end of the season. No one wants the seventh seed since that would likely mean a trip to either Buffalo or Kansas City for the first round.
The loss to the Buccaneers though magnified areas where the Chargers continue to struggle.
The offense has become one-dimensional since running back J.K. Dobbins suffered a knee injury against Baltimore on Nov. 25. The Chargers were a fairly-balanced attack for most of the season, but have gone to the run on only 33.1% of their snaps the past three games since Dobbins was placed on injured reserve. The league average during the same period is 39.1%.
The Chargers had a season-low 32 yards on the ground against Tampa Bay, and are averaging only 60.7 yards the past three games, well below their season average of 105.8 yards.
At the same time, the defense has struggled to stop the run.
Tampa Bay’s 223 rushing yards marked the second time in four games the Chargers have allowed at least 200 yards on the ground. Teams are averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
“You’re probably not going to reinvent the wheel this week with the guys in terms of what you’re doing. So you don’t want to really do too much new stuff,” offensive coordinator Greg Roman said. “The great thing is we got a lot of stuff that we haven’t done yet that we’ve been working on.”
What’s working
Justin Herbert has 1,184 passing yards off play action, the fourth most in the league. The Chargers have used play action on 32.1% of Herbert's drop-backs this season, the third-highest rate in the league.
What needs help
Getting off the field. The defense has not forced a punt in five quarters and have allowed scoring drives on 10 of their past 13 possessions.
Stock up
LB Joey Bosa had a forced fumble on a carry by Tampa Bay's Rachaad White during the second quarter, which was recovered by Elijah Molden near midfield. Bosa has two forced fumbles this season and 11 since 2021, tied for second most in the league.
Stock down
CB Kristian Fulton allowed five receptions for the second time in three weeks. Against Tampa Bay, it was five catches for 77 yards, including a 35-yard touchdown late in the third quarter when Evans got inside leverage and beat Fulton on a third-and-12 play.
Injuries
Rookie CB Cam Hart is in concussion protocol and is expected to miss Thursday night's game against Denver. Guard Zion Johnson sustained an ankle injury during the third quarter and is likely to be questionable.
Key numbers
15 — Regular-season games out of 222 as an NFL starting quarterback or head coach Jim Harbaugh has lost by at least 23 points.
76 — Games it took for Justin Herbert to reach 20,000 passing yards, tied for fifth quickest in league history. Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes reached the milestone in 67 games.
4 — Interceptions by Tarheeb Still, making him the first Chargers rookie with at least four picks since John Hendy in 1985.
What’s next
The Chargers have not swept the season series against the Broncos since 2010. The Bolts are 4-2 in Thursday night home games, which includes a 21-13 win over Denver in 2016. They have hosted only one Thursday night game since moving to Los Angeles in 2017, a 34-28 overtime loss to Kansas City in 2021.
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