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Broncos can wipe away back-to-back heartbreakers and make playoffs by beating Kansas City

Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton walks off the field following an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals in Cincinnati, Saturday, Dec. 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) — Losses to the Chargers and Bengals with a playoff berth on the line show Sean Payton made a miscalculation when he agreed to flex the Denver Broncos' Week 16 game to a Thursday night.

The NFL needed the Broncos' approval to replace the Cincinnati-Cleveland game with the Broncos-Chargers game because Denver had already played on a Thursday night on the road.

He eagerly agreed to the switch, figuring the team's fanbase always travels well to SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles and the Broncos would be the more rested team at Cincinnati.

But after an emotional comeback win over the Colts, the Broncos (9-7) lost to the Chargers in part because Payton got away from the run even though it helped them score touchdowns on their first three drives — and he had written “Run It!!” in marker on top of his play sheet.

And they lost to the Bengals 30-24 in overtime on Saturday after Payton decided against going for 2 and the win when Marvin Mims Jr. hauled in a highlight-reel touchdown grab between two defenders with 8 seconds left in regulation.

“We knew a tie for us was just as beneficial as a win,” Payton explained. “We felt like we had the momentum at that point.”

Holding up two fingers, rookie QB Bo Nix lobbied for the 2-point try to no avail.

“We discussed it all. We had plenty of time, plenty of time, plenty of time,” Payton said. "And the decision we made was the right one.”

Well ...

An extra point assured Joe Burrow would get the ball back, and the Broncos hadn't forced a single punt all game, something Payton acknowledged afterward that he wasn't aware of, and they hadn't stopped the Bengals since twice holding them on fourth down in the first half.

They finally forced a punt in overtime, but the Broncos went three-and-out, something they did again after Bengals kicker Cade York doinked a 33-yard field-goal attempt off the left upright on Cincinnati's second possession.

With the Bengals out of timeouts, all the Broncos needed was a first down and they'd be playoff-bound for the first time since 2015, but Bo Nix misfired to tight end Adam Trautman on third-and-long, so the Broncos punted and Burrow led the Bengals (8-8) on their game-winning touchdown drive.

“I thought we could move the ball in overtime,” Nix said, “but we didn't.”

The Broncos could render all of it moot with a win in Week 18 against Kansas City with the Chiefs (15-1) expected to rely heavily on backups as they rest up for the playoffs as the AFC's top seed.

But Denver's defense has been dismal since November, giving up the most yards in the league, and another letdown against the Chiefs would give the Broncos their biggest collapse in two decades.

“This is what we do it for — meaningful games here,” Payton said. "I think it’s important that you embrace it, and it is exciting. There’s nothing worse than playing games in the last part of the season where there’s nothing at stake. So I think it’s something we’ll all be excited about.”

What’s working

Denver's pass rush. The Broncos sacked Burrow seven times, giving them a league-high 58 for the season. Zach Allen had a career-best 3 1/2 of them and Dondrea Tillman's sack gives the Broncos six players without at least five sacks this season.

What needs help

Riley Moss led the Broncos with 14 tackles but he had a tough return to action after missing a month with a sprained MCL. Burrow targeted him over and over, including on the game-winning touchdown throw to Tee Higgins, who caught three TD passes.

“Riley could have been healthy for the last eight weeks. Whoever’s opposite Pat, they’re going to go that direction, right?" Payton said. (Higgins) is a good player. A real good player. It wasn’t anything that we didn’t expect. In other words, that happens when you’re teammates with Pat.”

Stock up

WR Marvin Mims Jr. had a breakout performance with eight catches for 103 yards and two fourth-quarter touchdowns, a 51-yarder and the 25-yard catch on fourth down in the closing seconds while sandwiched between two veteran defenders.

Stock down

Denver's defense. Even with Moss back, which allowed DC Vance Joseph to go back to relying more on man coverage, the Broncos defense continued to struggle since the calendar turned to December.

Injuries

The Broncos came out healthy although superstar CB Patrick Surtain II was limping on the game's final snaps.

Key number

5 — Number of NFL rookie QBs to throw for at least 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns with Nix joining Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning.

What’s next

It's all or nothing next week when a win over the Chiefs would send Denver to the playoffs.

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AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/NFL

Denver Broncos wide receiver Devaughn Vele (17) jumps into the arms of guard Quinn Meinerz (77) after a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals during the second half of an NFL football game in Cincinnati, Saturday, Dec. 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Jeff Dean)
Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. (19) makes catch for a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals during the second half of an NFL football game in Cincinnati, Saturday, Dec. 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. (19) celebrates after a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals during the second half of an NFL football game in Cincinnati, Saturday, Dec. 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (5) makes a catch for a touchdown in front of Denver Broncos cornerback Riley Moss (21) during the second half of an NFL football game in Cincinnati, Saturday, Dec. 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Jeff Dean)
Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) celebrates a touchdown with running back Audric Estime (23) against the Cincinnati Bengals during the second half of an NFL football game in Cincinnati, Saturday, Dec. 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Jeff Dean)