June, generally the driest month in Southwest Colorado, saw near-record rainfall this year as Tropical Storm Alberto pushed moisture into the Four Corners, followed by the beginning of the monsoons.
But the weather will start to dry up later this week, which does have the potential to drive up the risk of wildfires around the Fourth of July holiday.
“All of that moisture coming up from the south essentially gets shut off and shifted further to the east and stays down in New Mexico,” said Tom Renwick, a senior meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction. “And then we have high pressure building in, so back to high, dry, ‘clear, blue (and) 22.’”
The weather station at Durango-La Plata County Airport recorded 6.85 inches of precipitation since Jan. 1, well above the average 5.5 inches.
But even that number can be misleading, Renwick said, because storms dump moisture in fragmented patterns, meaning that some areas will see heavy rain while nearby locations will not receive any.
The airport weather station received 2.13 inches of rain in June, more than every year since 2000 other than 2022, when 2.23 inches of rain fell in June.
Flows on the Animas River nearly surpassed the June 7 peak of 3,480 cubic feet per second toward the end of June, when the river hit 3,440 cfs on June 21.
Renwick said the weather was likely just an anomaly and not directly attributable to climate change.
The NWS forecasts that temperatures in Durango will reach the mid-80s by the end of this week.
Despite the heavy rain, all of La Plata, Montezuma and Archuleta counties remain in either a state of moderate drought or are abnormally dry, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
The San Juan National Forest has received 2 to 5 inches of rain over the last two weeks, spokeswoman Lorena Williams said.
That has the forest’s fuels generally moist headed into the holiday weekend.
“However, we are now, starting (Monday), diving into the trend that we’ve been anticipating, which is this non-monsoon,” she said. “We’re looking ahead at 10 days to two weeks of drying.”
Weather conditions could mean conditions are right for prescribed burns.
Despite the forest’s “moderate” fire danger, Williams said fires can still start on the landscape and reminded the public that fireworks are always illegal on federal land. As people head out to camp this weekend, she also advises that the public remain diligent with respect to human actions that cause wildfires, primarily campfires and dragging trailer chains.
Over the last week, firefighters have caught 15 separate lightning-started fires in the national forest, all of which were contained at a tenth of an acre or less.
“Just because it’s not a tinderbox doesn’t mean that things aren’t still flammable,” Williams said.
Thanks to the wet conditions, the city of Durango plans to resurrect its Fourth of July fireworks display. The show is scheduled to start at 9:15 p.m. Thursday.
rschafir@durangoherald.com
