A new exclusive poll commissioned by NM Political Report finds that incumbent President Joe Biden has a lead over former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in potential 2024 matchups in New Mexico.
The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling, surveyed 767 New Mexico voters from Aug. 23-24.
Biden has the support of 49% of those polled against both Trump and DeSantis. In a potential rematch against Trump, the Republican former president would get 41% of the vote, with 10% of voters saying they were not sure.
DeSantis received the support of slightly more New Mexico voters, 43%, with 9% undecided. Numbers in poll results do not always add up to 100% because of rounding.
Democrats have dominated among New Mexico voters in recent presidential contests. In 2020, Biden defeated Trump by 10.79% to earn the state’s five electoral votes, 54.29% to 43.5%. A Republican has not won New Mexico since 2004, when George W. Bush narrowly defeated John Kerry. The last statewide election of any kind that Republicans have won was in 2016, when Judith Nakmura won an election to remain a state Supreme Court justice. She retired in 2020.
Of those surveyed, 52% said they voted for Biden, 41% for Trump and 7% said they voted for someone else or did not vote.
Biden leads despite a higher disapproval rating than approval rating among New Mexico voters.
The poll finds that 45% of New Mexico voters approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 48% disapprove.
But those polled were much more dissatisfied with Trump and DeSantis.
The poll found that just 33% of New Mexico voters had a favorable opinion of Trump, and that just 27% had a favorable opinion of DeSantis. Meanwhile, 57% had an unfavorable opinion of the former president and 54% had an unfavorable opinion of the Florida governor.
Biden holds a large lead among voters who identified as Hispanic or Latino, with 59% of those supporting the incumbent to 34% who supported Trump.
Biden leads DeSantis among Hispanic voters 57% to 36%.
But white voters tend to back the Republicans, with 47% saying they would vote for Trump and 44% for Biden, while 49% said they would vote for DeSantis and 43% for Biden.
Among all other ethnicities, Biden led 48% to 34% over Trump and 50% to 32% over DeSantis.
The poll surveyed 767 New Mexico voters on Aug. 23 and 24 via landline and text message. The survey used 35% landline and 65% text message. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5% for top-line questions, though subpopulations will have a larger margin of error.
