Donald Trump’s platform was clear when he was running for president. He promised to make bold improvements – quickly raising revenue by imposing tariffs on foreign goods, slashing prices at grocery stores, and ending fraud and wasteful government spending through greater efficiency.
None of this is happening.
After a few short weeks, inflation is rising, potentially crushing economic growth. In January, inflation expectations were 3.3%. February’s reading was a shock, with expectations rising to 4.3%, according to Barron’s Business Journal. A jump of this magnitude has happened only five times in 14 years.
Though he tabled early Mexico and Canada tariffs, China’s are in place. To make matters worse, on Feb. 10, Trump unveiled tariffs on steel and aluminum. The next day, the European Union, home to 450 million people, vowed retaliatory tariffs.
Meanwhile at home, so-called “egg-flation” is on the rise in the United States. It is most pronounced in Colorado after a law passed in 2020 mandates that all eggs sold in the state must now come from “cage free” hens, meaning that they get to spread their wings and roam a bit each day.
The law went into effect last month, and combined with avian flu, Coloradans now pay up to a $1 per egg. In recent years it was $2 per dozen. Labor shortages from frightened undocumented workers staying home are also hurting egg prices.
Although deporting undocumented workers apparently pleases many supporters of the president, the government’s roundups could have an inflationary impact on basic living costs. Migrant workers do our toughest jobs, whether it’s picking fruit, processing proteins like eggs and meat, or building Tesla’s Gigafactory.
Fake news narratives paint undocumented workers as a drag on America. The facts show that they pay into our retirement system and Treasury to the tune of $76 billion annually, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. These workers receive no benefits in return.
We are at 4.1% unemployment – a tight labor market. If we lose millions of these workers, we will see a dramatic rise in labor costs and a lessening of productivity.
Combined with tariffs, these actions are stagflationary, contributing to cost increases while slowing growth.
Vulnerable Americans, those who rent and who live paycheck to paycheck, have few options when goods rise rapidly in cost. We import over 80% of our aluminum. Are we prepared for soaring prices on automobiles, electronics and packaged food products?
Trump won the presidency in part on his promise to fix what he labeled a horrible economy. But thanks to his unnecessary tariffs, the only way to achieve lower prices here at home now is through a recession.
Recessionary periods are hard on people. Job losses, home foreclosures and drug use typically spike during tough times. A recession combined with a trade war hark back to the 1970s, a time when high prices and high unemployment – plus two energy shocks – battered Americans’ wallets and psyches.
Americans were so frustrated during that time that they elected Ronald Reagan, who cut taxes for the rich, emptied our mental institutions and gutted protections for labor. He also ushered in the billionaire class that today includes Trump and many in his Cabinet.
Yet there was a time of hope instead of empty promises at the start of Trump’s first presidency. Steve Bannon, a conservative media executive, initially served as chief strategist to the president. His advice to Trump: Shake things up by raising taxes on billionaires and cutting taxes for working people.
Bannon was fired seven months later as Trump passed broad tax cuts, up for renewal soon, for the wealthy. His policies continue to favor the richest in America.
Running for office for the second time, Trump singled out the migrant community for persecution, demonizing them for exaggerated ills in the economy. What never got communicated clearly was that our economy was on a steady keel, with prices steadying along with interest rate declines. Now we’re primed for an inflationary spiral.
Who will do the jobs that migrants do? Where will we source necessary foreign-made goods? How will we build needed housing? Undocumented workers make up 20% of the construction force.
And what is government efficiency when Trump allows people without security clearances to fight fraud by eviscerating federal agencies mandated by Congress?
Dave Marston is the publisher of Writers on the Range, writersontherange.org, an independent nonprofit dedicated to spurring conversation about Western issues. He lives in Durango.
