Southwest Colorado could experience some much needed snowfall Thursday, as the forecast indicates precipitation throughout the day.
It’s been a slow start to winter in terms of precipitation, despite Thanksgiving weekend flurries.
The storm is supposed to start early Thursday morning with a 90% chance of heavy snow throughout the day, according to the National Weather Service’s seven-day forecast.
This will undoubtedly help the region’s ski areas. Less than two months in their respective ski seasons, Purgatory Resort has a 19-inch base, while Wolf Creek Ski Area has around 80 inches. Both ski areas do make snow to help them through dry portions of the winter.
Purgatory’s website reports that the resort receives an average of 260 inches of snow annually, while Wolf Creek on average receives around 430 inches per year.
National Weather Service meteorologist Brianna Bealo said Durango can expect 3 to 5 inches of snow within the city limits, plus 8 to 10 inches in the higher elevations along U.S. Highway 550.
“It'll be kind of a messy morning commute, unfortunately. This first system is sweeping across Arizona and New Mexico and because of that, (you’re) getting a southerly flow that should fare well against the San Juan Mountains,” she said.
Montezuma County can expect 1 to 3 inches with slightly elevated numbers nearing Towaoc. Bealo said Pagosa Springs can also expect slightly lower numbers than Durango with an estimated 2 to 4 inches of snow, while Wolf Creek Pass could see anywhere from 6 to 8 inches.
Despite a sizable amount of snowfall to begin 2023, Bealo said precipitation was roughly 3 inches below average for the year. This was likely a result of a dry second half of the year.
“We've ended up in really blocky patterns (near the end of 2023). We've had a lot of, like, really amplified ridges of high pressure and really deep troughs of low pressure that just weren't moving,” she said.
While the weather has been on the dry side to start this winter, Bealo is optimistic about a shift in weather pattern starting with Thursday’s storm, adding there could be more precipitation next week. Another storm is also in the forecast for Sunday, which she says could provide a few more inches than Thursday.
“It's not necessarily clear cut because we're talking about over a week into the future. But it's definitely looking unsettled. It's looking like we're going to be under a trough more than we're going to be under a ridge, and that's a good sign as far as precipitation,” she said.
A trough is an extended zone of moderately low pressure that emanates from the core of a low pressure area, which is more conducive to precipitation. A ridge is an elongated area of relatively high pressure extending from the center of a high-pressure region that tends to favor dry weather conditions.
Bealo said Thursday’s storm should stick around for most of the day, while Sunday’s storm could last well into late Monday afternoon. The NWS has issued a weather advisory warning for Thursday.
tbrown@durangoherald.com
